General
March was for the most part dry, with the exception of one or two heavy showers and one very destructive storm at the beginning of the month. This storm blew down the acacia tree at Purungat Gate and washed the surface off the main road in sections that had just been repaired. We then had a few days of heavy rain from the 28th, when the long rains appear to have started in earnest and we can expect two months of heavy of storms and all-night showers.
We held our Board meeting on the 5th in Nairobi. The main agenda item was to discuss a draft loan agreement with Conservation International (CI) and in the end the Board agreed to defer the Agreement until August, at the earliest – this was then relayed to CI. The major concern was paying interest on funds not immediately required. Sadly CI have no facility to release funds as required, this would have made it a far more attractive option. The Sheldrick Wildlife Trust (SWT) have very kindly pledged support and this may suffice if tourism begins to pick up in July and August.
The young Maasai warriors – Morans – have set up their manyattas near the escarpment. This is a time when they all come together as an age set: to eat meat, get to know each other, learn from their elders and show their bravery before graduating to junior elders. This is the most dangerous time for lions, as tradition has it that they should kill a lion with spears. We have alerted all the rangers along the escarpment, and asked our community scouts and the elders to be watchful. One lioness was killed by Morans when they all came together nine years ago. We managed to foil one such attempt on the 20th (See the security section).
The President of Tanzania, John P Magafuli, died on the 17th after weeks of speculation on his whereabouts and health status. President Magafuli was lauded by many for his stance against inefficiency and corruption; but also criticized for human rights abuses, failure to recognise Covid-19 as a major health threat and his anti-expatriate stance. He appeared to target Kenyans working in Tanzania and never had a particularly good relationship with Kenya.
We burnt a small block on the 22nd and another patch one on the 29th. There has never been a dry spell long enough for us to burn as we would have liked..
WildEarth have kindly prepared a couple of short videos to be used as commercials on their new DSTv channel – 183 from the 1stApril. Their videos, and these commercials, will be aired throughout Africa and will have a message on the end that says "Please help protect the Mara Triangle, today" with our logo and website listed.
Research
There is a preview of a paper by Dr Joseph Ogutu et.al in Researchfeatures.com, which looks at the effects of fences on ungulate populations in Africa and how they are contributing to the decline in wildlife populations in the Mara ecosystem.
There are numerous examples of fencing and barriers causing drastic declines in wildlife populations from the crash in the wildebeest migration in Botswana; reindeer population in Russia; Mongolian gazelles; and the springbok in the Karoo, South Africa. In Kenya we are seeing the same thing; there has been a greater than 70% decline in Kenya’s wildebeest population since the mid-1970s and “most migratory routes have collapsed completely”. This includes the Loita, Athi/Kapiti and Amboseli migrations. Much of this can be attributed to fencing but the underlying problems include the exponential increase in the human population and the fact that protected areas are too small to cover migratory routes. We are extremely fortunate that Tanzania set aside the Serengeti National Park, an area that covers most of the migratory route for the Serengeti/Mara migration.
The Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) is planning an ecosystem wide aerial count of the large ungulates from 10-24th May and have been requesting additional support.
A very thorough and interesting document – a vital read for anyone in wildlife policy making, tourism or research has just been publishes. It is Titled:
State of the Wildlife Economy in Africa (2021). S Snyman, F Vorhies, D Sumba, E Gitari. Wildlife Economy Research project. http://bit.ly/SOWC_Full-report
This document gives a comprehensive overview and then looks at five case-study countries: Gabon, Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya and South Africa.
In Kenya, it looks at the tourism model – one that pits us in conservation and protected area management against a very strong and entrenched tourism industry.
“Kenya operates a high-volume low-value model of tourism that emphasises growth in visitor numbers to drive value (World Bank, 2018). On average, a tourist stays for 12 days (KNBS, 2020) spending an average of USD 200 per day (Kiptalaa et al., 2019). There are 29.8 million bed-nights available in Kenya, of which 9.16 million (30.8%) were occupied in 2019 (KNBS, 2020). Considering that there is a high proportion of revenue leakages (up to 70%) to international corporations (Okello, 2014), there is pressure to increase numbers to maximise value. This is why Kenya aims to grow visitor numbers to five million international visitors by 2030 (Government of Kenya, 2008). The focus on tourist numbers is likely to lead to congestion, overcrowding, and environmental degradation further reducing the pull of the destination in the face of competition. Kenya needs to explore a differentiated strategy that has both mass tourism and high-value tourism based on the suitability of in-country destinations in order to maximise
the economic value from tourism (World Bank, 2018).”
The same document highlights the drastic decline in Kenya’s wildlife populations in the past 40 years, and the importance of conservation based tourism to Kenya’s economy. It discusses the policies and factors that have led to the loss of wildlife and reports on some of the changes that are taking place to address the issue (This in itself is worthy of a whole report).
Collaboration Agreement
We have been severely hampered by a lack of funding but have still managed to repair sections of the road between Mara Bridge and Keekorok, repair the water supply at Sand River and Musiara, and maintain vehicles and equipment.
COVID-19
Kenya is well into the third wave of Covid-19, with more positive cases being recorded than at any time in the past year. The spike in cases (We have now had 132,646 positive cases from 1,489,459 tests, 2,153 people have died) has resulted in the Government imposing a new lock-down on five counties – Nairobi, Nakuru, Kajiado, Kiambu and Machakos. The key points in the lock-down are:
· No movement outside these counties by road, rail or air – the rule took effect from midnight on the 29th for aircraft and midnight on the 26th for all other means;
· International travel permitted as long as people have adhered to all the protocols and have a negative test less than 96 hours before travel;
· The curfew period is increased to 8.00 pm from 10.00 pm;
· No sale of alcohol in restaurants and only take-away;
· A restriction on meetings and gatherings;
· No political rallies.
Elsewhere things remain as they have done for months. However, there will be restrictions on meetings, political rallies, church services and gatherings.
The country has received 1.12 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine but concerns about side effects, especially: blood clots, headaches and flu-like symptoms has meant that there was some initial resistance to the vaccine. To date 806,000 doses have been distributed countrywide and 161,771 people have been vaccinated. I received the first dose on the 26th and the second dose is scheduled for 21st May. We have started vaccinating all our security staff, and the first group received their initial dose on the 30th.
Tourism
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the tourism economy in Kenya following the global shutdown in travel. A government survey has estimated that tourism has so far lost KES 80 billion / USD 750 million and almost 1.3 million jobs in the travel industry. Over 81% of tourism companies have reduced staff and about 85% have implemented pay cuts for employees. Further losses are projected as follows:
· Hotel revenue: USD 511 million lost as a result of cancellations and hotel closures
· Airline industry: Passenger numbers projected to fall by 1.6 million passengers, leading to USD 320 million in lost revenues and putting 36,800 jobs at risk
· MICE sector projected to lose KES 163.6 billion /USD 1.6 billion in revenues
· Almost half of tourism businesses have lost over KES 2.5 million / USD 23,500 in the first 6 months of 2020 due to cancellations
· The government’s Tourism Fund has lost KES 2.5 billion / USD 23.5 million in levies
· Visitation to National Parks has dropped by 87%
· Livelihoods for communities dependent on tourism have been devastated.
The Kenya government has injected KES 500 million/ USD 4.7 million to support the tourism industry, mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and to create recovery pathways.”
Source: MoTW, (2020) in State of the Wildlife Economy in Africa
The lock-down came just when things were beginning to improve. The Government is allowing local airline companies to operate out of Nairobi, but only carry international visitors who have complied with all the Covid-19 regulations. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty on whether international tourists will be able to travel between different destinations within the country and the logistics involved, or if they are indeed able to travel by road. One thing is certain, there will be next to no local tourism in the Mara. It is already happening. The implication on our finances is that we can expect virtually no income in the coming months. We can only hope that things improve in time for the high season. We certainly cannot survive another year like 2020 without significant support.
Staff
Gideon Bett broke his leg when a buffalo attacked a Land Cruiser he was in, he fell out of the vehicle, fortunately on the opposite side to the buffalo. The buffalo broke off one horn at the skull and there was no apparent reason for the attack. It has not been seen since.
We are sending as many people off as possible, to reduce of-days due, but also to cut costs.
Wildlife
A routine patrol came across an elephant carcass on the 6th at Oldonyo Olpaek, they recovered the tusks .
A hyena was killed by a speeding vehicle along the main road to Oloololo on the 27th. We suspect a vehicle carrying exam papers that was on its way to Sekenani early in the morning.
A hippo fell into an open pit outside the Reserve on the 28th and Grade “A” kindly send a back-hoe to dig a channel for it to climb out.
We have seen a number of cheetah in the Triangle, the first time that cheetah have been seen on a regular basis for months.
Security
Twenty-two people were arrested during the month – sixteen of them young warriors hunting for a lion to spear in the Triangle. Three were arrested as they set wire snares, 13 were recovered. Three more were arrested whilst honey hunting along the escarpment.
One person was seen downstream from the Saltlick on the afternoon of the 28th February, he managed to escape and evade arrest that night as well. The following day a follow-up patrol came across where his four companions had been. The patrol recovered two knives. It would appear that the poachers were on their way through when first seen – possibly heading for the river.
Sixteen morans from the Lolgorien manyatta attempted to kill a lion on the 20th. They left the manyatta at 9.00 pm the previous night, arrived on the escarpment at 4.00 am and then entered the Triangle. They were separated in the dark, with one group of five getting slightly lost. The main group of 11 proceeded to hunt lions but were seen at mid-morning and arrested. An hour later the five were also spotted and arrested. After a lot of pressure by local leaders the morans were released but we confiscated their weapons – many of them the traditional Maasai – long blade and short shaft - spear that is seldom seen in this area any more. No lions were killed.
We have started limited patrols in the Lemai Wedge again and within days we had our first success. We moved one of our cameras to Daraja la Mzee and within 24 hours we saw people crossing – at 6.28 am. The rangers immediately responded and deployed the dogs. The dogs then followed the scent right up to where three people were setting their snares. They had set nine snares and were in possession of another four. This was an excellent example of technology (Thank you Wildlife Protection Systems (WPS)), rapid deployment and the use of our dogs in successful anti-poaching.
Three people were arrested by the Partikilat team when they entered the Triangle to collect honey on the 27th. They were taken to the Chief’s office.
Revenue and Accounts
February revenue was slightly down on January, as expected. We were certainly helped by the number of Americans travelling, they made up 21% of our visitors, with most of them staying at our higher-end camps. However, our share of revenue hardly covered the expenses for 10 days and we are still bleeding reserves. At the current rate they will be depleted in June.
Our management accounts for the first eight months of the financial year clearly show the effects of Covid-19 on our income and bottom line. Our revenue from Park entrance fees stood at Ksh 29,387,216 (US$ 272,104)[1], against Ksh 192,915,699 (US$ 1,786,256) for the same period last year – a drop of 85%. We reduced our projected expenditure in this year by 30% and have managed to keep pretty well within budget – we have spent Ksh 108,280,537 (US$ 1,002,598) against a projection of Ksh 106,458,654 – a 1.7% variance. Bottom line is that we have gone from a cash surplus in 2019/20 of Ksh 46 million to a deficit of Ksh 45 million in the space of one year. This, despite extremely generous donations amounting to Ksh 29.4 million in this financial year.
The prognosis for the coming months is for virtually no income – we are expecting camps and lodges to offer very minimal services, or even close down until June or July.
Table 2: Cash flow statement for 8 months ending 28th February 2021.
Repairs and maintenance
We repaired the road to Purungat and then worked on the road to Nigro-are before grading the section to Kilo 2.
We completed work on the new crossing over the Sabaringo Lugga.
We have virtually completed rebuilding the crossing by the Kichwa airstrip, this work was contracted out to Grade “A”.
We replaced the turbo charger on the Ngiro-are Land Rover, replaced the windscreen and welded an engine mounting on the administration Land Cruiser;
We painted some of the road signs that had faded.
We placed three murram plinths at Dirisha Camp for use by Angama’s mobile camp.
Collaboration agreement
· We repaired damaged sections of the road between Mara Bridge and Keekorok;
· We repaired the water supply to at Sand River and again at Musiara;
· We repaired the Administrator’s vehicle;
· We looked at the Ololamutia water supply, it is in need of serious repair;
· We continued with joint patrols.
Report on focus for March
Focus for April 2021
1. Complete crossing by the Kichwa airstrip;
2. Work on the saltlick road to Nigro-are;
3. Fix Seur’s drift on the Saltlick road to Nigro-are;
4. Install a new water tank at Nigro-are;
5. Vaccinate staff against Covid-19;
6. Work on Collaboration Agreement – funds permitting;
o Hopefully receive funding;
o Repair roads in the Reserve;
o Start on housing at Musiara;
o Start on road between Talek and Sekenani; and
o Receive final car from Rob’s Magic.