General
We have had a fraction under 1,800 mm (70”) of rain between November and the end of April – virtually rainforest levels of rainfall - and approaching twice the annual average for Serena. The heaviest rains were in December but they set the tone for extensive flooding and enormous destruction, we even had two small landslides on the escarpment (see Figure 2 for the rainfall over the past 12 months)
The unprecedented and very destructive rains continued into May, with the river reaching the highest levels in living memory on the first. Fortunately we had a few dry days around the 8th, sufficient to complete repairs to the approach at Mara Bridge and repair sections of our main road. The roads to Nigro-are have been virtually impassable for two months and it will take weeks of dry weather and work to make them motorable again. We have tried to make the road past the salt-lick motorable and spent time in repairing the worst sections. Both river roads were closed for May, again it will take weeks of dry weather and low river levels before we can work on them.
We were visited by ZDF German TV crew on the 8th and 9th, they talked to the community, then management before joining one of our teams on patrol.
We used a few days of dry weather to burn one or two areas, there was sufficient dry, dead grass underneath for a gentle burn but then the rains returned on the 12th for a few days before it dried out again.
The Governor visited the Triangle on the 22nd, 19 years to the day since we signed our original agreement with the County Council of Trans Mara. We discussed our collaboration agreement for the Main Reserve with him and the Administrator for the Reserve Ms Christine Koshal. We agreed on a four month budget to repair the roads, some key infrastructure, and purchase equipment and uniforms. We also agreed that the Conservancy would take over the management of some of the heavy machinery, oversee the work and administer the funds.
We held a one-day strategy meeting on the 25th to discuss fundraising options together with Mark Jenkins, acting as a consultant for KfW, Justin Heath who is looking at other options and Marc Goss from MEP who has a lot of experience in dealing with donors.
COVID-19
The Government extended the lock-down and curfew until the 6th June, as they grapple with increased cases of the Corona virus. The number of people who have tested positive in Kenya now stand at 1,962, with 64 deaths and 478 recoveries. The number of cases is significantly higher than last month and the pressure to remove the lock-down is considerable, despite the exponential increase in positive cases.
It looks increasingly unlikely that we will see any tourists in the coming months. The number of Covid19 cases continues to climb, albeit at a much slower rate than in Europe and America. There is bound to be a several month time lag between opening up the country and its borders, and visitors arriving in any numbers; and we don’t even know when that is likely to happen.
Tourism
We didn’t have a single foreign tourist in April and May and we can expect the same in the coming months. All the camps and lodges using the Triangle have been closed for the past two months and they will probably remain closed for the foreseeable future. Most of those that planned to re-open in June have pushed their opening dates forward to July, many will probably open much later
Any extended closure of camps and lodges will have a huge impact on staff, we are hearing of more and more operations that will stop paying salaries in the near future, some have already done so. Not only are some camps suffering from the closures, but some were severely damaged in the flooding at the beginning of the month. The Mara Safari Club was one of those damaged in the flooding and now Fairmont have closed their operations in Kenya indefinitely from the 28th May. They managed the Mara Safari Club, the iconic Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi and the Mount Kenya Safari Club – all very high end properties.
The Mara Safari Club is based on Ol Choro and its closure will not only affect the numerous staff but the land owners; and management will surely suffer. This is a great shame, Ol Choro was the first conservancy established in the Mara, by the late Willie Roberts – a pioneer conservationist in the Mara and the founder of the Mara Conservancy. It is almost certain that other properties, both in Nairobi and the Mara will close down as a result of this pandemic.
Staff
The staff have reviewed the situation and have all agreed to take a 30% cut in salary from June. This will be reviewed monthly. In the meantime we are progressing with staff appraisals in in training people on how to fill in the forms and appraise others.
Research
A recent paper on rainfall trends was interesting to read in the light of this year’s exceptional rains.
Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics (2018). Bartzke G S, Ogutu J O, Mukhopadhyay S, Mtui D, Dublin H T, Piepho H-P. PLOS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202814
The annual rainfall in the Mara reserve follows has a marked gradient from about 650 mm in the southeast to about 1,300 mm along the Oloololo escarpment in the northwest – the mean for the Mara being 985 mm (Figure 1). The authors note an increase in the number of drought years but also note increased flooding in wet years. They also report that “In addition to rainfall variability, water flow in the Mara River has been declining as a consequence of upstream deforestation of the Mau forest and excessive water abstraction for irrigation in Kenya”.
Figure 1: Mean monthly rainfall in the Mara since 1965
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There were five years between 1965 and 2015 when the average rainfall for the Mara exceeded 1,200 mm , †he highest being just under 1,400 mm in 1998. The authors say that there appears to be no long-term increase in rainfall, though four of the five wettest years were between 1998 and 2015. In the past twelve months we have received 2,233.5 mm (90”) of rain; two and a half times our normal annual rainfall and well over any rain we have received in the past 55 years (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Monthly rainfall at Serena since June 19, compared with mean over 55 years.
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Wildlife
The Wardens from the Main Reserve found an abandoned lion cub, about six months old, and brought it to us to look after on the 4th. The Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) then took the cub to the Nairobi Animal Orphanage on the 9th. KWS already have 24 lions in the Orphanage, mainly held in deplorable conditions, to take another lion there from far better conditions seems ridiculous, and again highlights some of the issues that really need to be addressed in wildlife. Landowners are expected to look after and protect wildlife on their land, at their cost with absolutely no support or incentives from Government or the State Authority – and yet they have no say on what happens to those animals. People in Nairobi, with no real interest or understanding in animals and conservation are making decisions that are detrimental to the welfare of such animals.
We found one of the collared hyena dead near the Four Kilometer junction at the beginning of the month, we alerted the hyena project and they identified it as the matriarch from the Happy Zebra clan.
An old female elephant was found dead along the BBC Lugga on the 15th, it appeared to have died from natural causes. The tusks were recovered and weighed around 7 kg each.
The fires have helped in providing short grass for plains game and we have noted a significant increase in topi, eland, Thompson’s gazelle and zebra on the burnt areas.
Security
We arrested one group of five poachers who had killed, butchered and dried one hippo. We know of at least one other hippo that was poached. So far we have not seen any increase in poaching, although there are concerns that poaching will get out of hand as a result of reduced patrols and a lack of tourists.
We received a report on the 8th that people were hunting hippo near Miungu in the Lemai Wedge, the whole area was completely waterlogged but the rangers managed to reach there and found lots of fresh tracks but were unable to find a dead hippo, or the poachers.
There was another report of a hippo being butchered near Lugga ya Ngiri in the Lemai Wedge on the 10th, the area is very difficult to access and by the time the rangers arrived they saw people carrying out hippo meat. They ambushed the site until 11.00 pm but no one returned.
Routine patrol found two solar panels and other items on the 26th near Saina’s crossing in the Lemai Wedge, the items had probably been stolen from one of the camps and hidden until they could be collected.
Five poachers were arrested on the 27th, after their tracks were seen at Purungat. The poachers followed the road for around three kilometers before branching off into the Lemai Wedge. The Iseiya and Purungat rangers used Morani, one of our dogs, and he followed the trail for around five kilometers – straight into the poachers’ camp. They had killed a hippo near Ashnil in the Main Reserve, had dried the meat for nearly a week and were transporting it back home. They claimed that each one of them was carrying meat worth US$ 100 – US$ 500 in total. This fits with the figures we were given last year of a hippo being worth around US$ 450 – or Tanzanian Shillings 1.2 million. The whole group arrested, two of them had been arrested before.
Revenue and Accounts
We collected a total of Ksh 31,900 at our gates in April, out of a total Ksh 281,900. Fifty five of the 81 visitors were non-paying, in transit through the Triangle, as most of the roads and bridges in the area are impassable.
Table 2 below, gives us our actual cash flow through April 2020 and then projects forward to the end of the financial year with the cost-cutting measures we have instituted. We should end the year with Ksh 54 million in the bank, sufficient to run the Conservancy through to November 2020 at the projected rate of expenditure. However, we need to be aware of some major statutory insurance and audit expenses early in the new financial year.
When analyzed, our staff and staff related costs amount to 69% of the total running costs of the Conservancy. This is obviously where we can make our greatest savings and their offer to take a 30% salary cut in June goes a long way towards reducing our overall running costs from an average of Ksh 17 million per month to around Ksh 10 million (US$100,000). Our greatest challenges will be in trying to repair and maintain infrastructure and retain a high level of security on a greatly reduced budget, and with no income.
Table 2: Cash flow projection to the end of the financial year
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Repairs and maintenance
We jointly worked with Grade (A) to repair the approaches to the Bailey Bridge at Purungat – we provided and transported rock, provided the gabions and cement, whilst Grade (A) provided the heavy machinery, labour and expertise. We completed repairs to both approaches at Mara Bridge on the 8th, they should now be able to withstand major flooding.
A large section of the concrete bridge below was swept away and this will probably require a Government contract to repair it. Nothing can be done before the river goes right down – maybe in January/February next year. This will definitely have an impact on heavy vehicles trying to access the Triangle – our limit on the Bailey Bridge is 10 tons.
We concentrated on the main road between Purungat and Oloololo Gate, this is in good condition despite the months of exceptional rain. We added to culverts to the first swampy area on the way to Oloololo, resurfaced all damaged areas and graded the worst parts of the road.
We then started work on the escarpment road to Nigro-are, whole sections of the road were impassable because of underground seepage creating areas akin to quicksand. Several kilometres required major roadworks, just to drain off the underground water.
We started burning two blocks as part of our routine burning programme, the grass was still very green but there was a lot of dry, dead grass below. This enabled us to have a very slow, gentle burn.
We replaced the water tank at Iseiya, it had a slight leak near the outflow pipe, we also levelled the stand with a thin layer of concrete – it seems to have worked well.
We sold our Cat 140H grader for Ksh 11,000,000 – it is in very good condition and will hopefully give the new owner years of good service.
Report on focus for May
Focus for June 2020
· Complete Annual Work Plan and Budget;
· Continue to seek donor support;
· Implement salary cuts;
· Start on Collaboration Agreement with the Main Reserve;
· Continue working on roads;
· Complete burning programme; and
· Complete staff appraisals;;